How to Bet NRFIs Successfully

If you are not familiar with the NRFI, by the time you are done with this article, you will be. The NRFI bet – No Runs First Inning – is one of the most popular MLB wagers right now. Bettors, whether experienced or not, love it, but do they win NRFI bets consistently? There is a way to increase your winning percentage on these MLB bets. Let’s see how.

What Is NRFI?

As shown above, NRFI stands for No Runs First Inning. Bettors are betting on the two teams in a MLB game to not score any runs in the first inning. This wager has become extremely popular because bettors don’t have to wait two to three hours for their full-game bet to cash. Six outs, three in the top of the first and three more in the bottom of the inning and you may have yourself a winner.

Neither team can score in their half of the first inning. It’s that simple. Consistently winning the bet is not quite as easy. Here’s what you can do to boost your chances for success.

It’s All About Pitching

A big part of successfully betting NRFIs is the starting pitching matchup. You have to be careful, though, in the games that you select. Two great pitchers – Gerrit Cole vs. Blake Snell, for example – doesn’t necessarily make betting the NRFI a good play.

Two great pitchers going against each other typically results in highly unfavorable NRFI odds. The same holds true for two poor hitting lineups that face each other. You will get bad NRFI odds that will usually make the bet not worth playing. Later, we’ll show you a strategy where you may be able to cash in on these types of NRFI bets.

What you should be looking for in a good NRFI bet is an underrated pitcher going up against a pretty good lineup that has been slumping. You’ll get more favorable odds in this situation. Then, you can look for the following from that pitcher.

• Low WHIP
• High K rate
• Low HR rate

Pitchers with a low WHIP avoid baserunners. Allowing a baserunner in the first inning gives a team a greater chance of scoring and ruining your bet. Pitchers that strike out a lot of batters are more favorable in a NRFI bet, since they have the ability to strike out the side. Finally, you want pitchers that don’t give up a lot of homers. The solo HR is the one thing that will crush your NRFI bet.

Do yourself a favor. Before placing any NRFI bet, always check the pitchers’ first inning ERA. Obviously, you will prefer pitchers whose first inning ERA is lower compared to the rest of the league.

Hitting Lineups

If you’re betting that no runs will be scored in the first inning, then you would probably prefer a lineup that is weaker than most. That’s not always the case. You can also look for teams that are in a slump. Last season, the Yankees went through a stretch that took them to the bottom of MLB in batting average. They finished the 2023 season ranked 29th (.227)

You should also check the injury reports. There was a time when Ronald Acuna Jr. was out of the Braves lineup. Acuna hits first in the Braves lineup. He’s also the reigning NL MVP. Having a player like that out of a lineup creates some issues. The bottom line is that it pays to check the injury reports before placing your NRFI bets.

One last item is to check and see how much of a team’s production comes from the top of the batting order. Keep in mind that a first inning run needs at least four batters to score it. While four will take a trip to the plate, one of the first three hitters will actually score the run. That’s why bettors should use a metric like wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) for the first four hitters in a lineup before they place their NRFI bets. This stat will give you an idea of how productive a player is. 

2024 NRFI Examples

Let’s say you’re betting NRFIs in 2024. If you did your research, you would have figured out that you should stay away from the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels are averaging 0.80 runs per first inning. Their NRFI record is 4-11.

On the other end, the Washington Nationals are a bottom-10 team in most offensive metrics. The Nats scored their very first run in the first inning of a game on April 15. In 15 games prior, Washington did not score a run in the first inning. Their NRFI record in those first 15 games was 13-2.

Bet NFRI’s at the highest rated sportsbooks only