Don’t Go on Tilt: A Gambler’s Guide to Emotional Control When Your Team Concedes Early

Betting on your favorite sports team can add some extra excitement to games but there is also a risk that you will be drawn into emotional betting. When you are passionate about your team, you can find it difficult to separate rational decision making from your bias towards your team. You might be more inclined to bet on unlikely outcomes, including placing bigger stakes and betting on higher odds.

Another scenario that you can be more likely to find yourself in is going on a tilt if your team concedes early. For example, you have placed a bet on your team winning and five minutes into the game, they concede and you start panicking, thinking that you will lose your initial bet. This can trigger an emotional response of trying to recoup what you think is lost by betting more money in-play.

If you are betting on soccer, you need to remember that there are 90 minutes in a match, plus any added time. Many teams concede early and still go on to win, so practicing patience is essential to avoid chasing a loss that might not even become a loss. 

What Do the Stats Show?

The timing of goals tends to be more heavily weighted in the second half of games. If we look at the English Premier League, in the opening five games of the 2025/26 season, 58% of goals were scored in the second half and 42% were scored in the first half of matches.

To break this down even further, the stats show that the highest number of goals have been scored in the 76-90 minute segment (25% of all goals). Here is the segment breakdown:

0-15: 12.1%
16-30: 8.9%
31-45: 21%
46-60: 20.2%
61-75: 12.9%
76-90: 25%

From this data, you can see that a higher percentage of goals have been scored in the final 76–90-minute segment than in the entire first 30 minutes. So, when you are worried about conceding early, statistics show that there is a good chance of more goals in the latter stages of the game.

Variance Between Different Teams

It is also important to look at each team specifically, as some teams are more consistently scoring late goals. Liverpool have been singled out as ‘leaving it late’ in scoring winning goals and the stats back this up. They have scored an average of 0.8 goals in the first half over these first five matches, while they have scored an average 2.40 goals in the second half of the same five games.

Wolverhampton Wanderers on the other hand, have scored more goals in the first half, with an average of 2.20 goals, compared to just 0.8 in the second half, which is the lowest amount of second half goals in the Premier League this season. So, it is a good idea to take all of this information into account when considering whether to place any more money on the game.

Some teams have a mentality where they will perform better towards the end of the game, while others have a tendency to let go of leads and concede later on.

So, not just looking at existing form in terms of wins and losses but reviewing average goal timings can help you to make more rational betting decisions and not be swayed by your passion for your team.

How to Maintain Discipline to Avoid Emotional Betting

If you do your research before the game and look at the statistics, this should help you to maintain more discipline and avoid chasing losses before the results have been settled.

While live betting can be a good opportunity to find value odds, if you’re absorbed in the game, you might not be thinking as rationally as you would before the game. Your emotions can fluctuate with the excitement of the game, leading to bets you wouldn’t normally consider. 

There are also fewer betting options available in-play compared to before the game starts, so you could be drawn to bets that don’t offer good value. If you do decide to try live betting, choose a platform that offers a good range of live bets. 

You can see the different types of bets that are available prior to the start of the game and during games for soccer betting here. While you have hundreds of options of bets before the game, you’ll find significantly less options for live betting. 

Live betting can be more profitable when bettors react to the flow of the game, but pre-match betting can be more successful through the advantage of research.

In summary, if you are watching your own team, your live betting can be disrupted by your personal attachment to the game, so always try to hold back from placing bets that could be driven by emotion to achieve more success with your betting. Focusing on data is the best way to avoid going on tilt.