AI & Sports Betting

Artificial intelligence, more commonly called AI these days, is changing sports betting, but are the changes for the better? 

AI consumes statistics, injury updates, line moves, home and away trends, and much more to do what sports bettors try to do each and every day – correctly pick winning bets. Are the AI models any better than the average sports bettor?

The best answer at the moment is maybe.

Understanding How AI Betting Models Work

You have surely seen AI betting models as you scroll through your social media feeds. Most will boast about winning percentages and how their model is the “best” in the industry. How do these models work and what makes any one of them the “best”?

It’s estimated that nearly $2 billion will be spent on AI-driven betting models in 2026. Keep in mind though that these AI betting models are not only being used by sports bettors, they are also being used by sportsbooks.

DraftKings uses machine learning, or AI, for everything from odds pricing to same-game parlay analysis. Remember, sportsbooks are in the business of making money and they are going to do things that ensure they continue to make that money.

AI betting models essentially use historical data to identify patterns. The data comes from previous games, team and individual player stats, injuries, odds, and more. A model may recognize, for example, that a college basketball player hits more three-pointers on his home floor. The model may recommend betting the Over on a player’s three-pointers when that player plays on his home court.

These models will continually update and retrain using the results of each new game. Models start with a base of knowledge, but that knowledge grows with each day as new information is added. A model is “smarter” at the end of a season compared to the beginning.

The bottom line is that AI sports betting technology does exactly what sports handicappers and bettors do only on a grander scale…and machines can do it faster. 

False Confidence in AI Betting Models

Like humans who bet on sports, AI models are not successful with every pick. There are times when models might discover misleading historical data. For example, a certain team’s wins coincide with severe weather or multiple injuries to an opponent. Those events may or may not remain true in future games and could lead an AI model to use data that, ultimately, is misleading.

Models are also subject to surprises. The NFL or NBA makes a rule change. A geopolitical event occurs that has a huge impact on players and their teams. There are things that happen in sports that are completely random that no model can account for. Remember the Randy Johnson fastball that killed a bird? Last year’s NFL kickoff game between Dallas and Philadelphia was stopped in the third quarter due to lightning.

Those things happen and no AI model can account for them. Bettors using AI should also be aware of the public jumping on an AI-predicted favorite. What happens when the majority of bettors are backing a certain team to win or cover a spread? The pricing changes and the value on that bet evaporates quickly.

Simply trusting an AI sports model to make all of your betting picks is not a strategy for winning. Think of these models as another tool to help you make sound betting decisions. 

The Future of AI in Sports Betting

No matter how good (or bad) AI sports models are at predicting outcomes, the future of sports betting is in algorithms. Algorithms drive these models and those algorithms will only get better at predicting outcomes.

These AI models – most come in the form of an app – will continue to grow and continue to learn. That, of course, only makes them better at making sports betting picks. 

The models will continue to be used by sportsbooks in a variety of ways. You may have seen some sportsbooks start to cater to individual bettors. Imagine opening your sportsbook app and seeing customized correlated parlay generated by your betting history. Your sportsbook knows, for example, you like to wager on short NBA favorites and Unders. As a result, the model provides a same-game parlay with a few different price points based on your risk profile.

The question now isn’t whether sports bettors will use AI sports betting tools. It’s just a matter of when every sports bettor is using some form of AI as a “personal betting assistant.” There is also no question that sportsbooks will continue to use AI. Sportsbooks use AI betting models to help them adjust odds, monitor risk, and even detect suspicious betting activity.

AI models are already used by major sportsbooks and while you may not see it, any bet you place today, tomorrow, or in the future is at least touched by an AI model in some fashion. That’s the reality of today’s sports betting industry.